In March, the demand of the machinery industry showed a mild recovery trend
Due to the seasonal effect, after a simple seasonal adjustment, the economy still maintained a recovery momentum in January and February. However, from the point of view of the terminal demand for industrial consumables, the recovery is not obvious. The peak season this year will arrive later than in previous years. The market has a strong wait-and-see atmosphere, and the market demand has not met the expectations of terminal manufacturers and dealers. As the convening of the two sessions provided new guidance for the macroeconomic direction, the real estate investment recovery process was disrupted. In the context of the introduction of real estate regulation, this means that the recovery of infrastructure investment will make up for the decline in real estate investment, and the certainty of infrastructure investment recovery will increase. . In terms of money supply, the report proposes to 'maintain a reasonable growth of money and credit, and appropriately expand the weigherof social financing', indicating that in an environment with limited credit growth space, other financing methods are still supported by policies, which can ensure the source of investment funds. For the machinery industry, in the case of industrial overcapacity, the moderate recovery of the economy and investment will lead to a moderate recovery in the machinery industry. The demand prospects for infrastructure downstream machinery products are promising. In the short term, due to the fine-tuning of monetary policy, the introduction of real estate control policies, and the strong wait-and-see atmosphere in the terminal market, the sales of machinery products in the peak season in March may be less than expected. Looking back at the performance of the machinery industry in February, according to the arithmetic average algorithm and the weighted average algorithm of tradable shares, the relative CSI 300 index outperformed by 4.9 and 3.87 percentage points respectively. In terms of sub-industry performance in February, affected by the market investment style, other special equipment and instrumentation industries with small market capitalization led the growth. Due to the enhanced risk appetite, the shipbuilding and aerospace industries also achieved good returns. In the short term, due to the fine-tuning of monetary policy, the introduction of real estate control policies, and the strong wait-and-see atmosphere in the terminal market, it is expected that the industry will be difficult to obtain relative returns in the short term, but due to the low valuation of the industry, the downward space is also limited. In the medium term, the economy is still in a recovery channel, and the demand for the machinery industry will still experience a mild recovery process in the future, but a mild recovery will lead to limited room for improvement in the valuation of the machinery industry. In terms of industries and individual stocks, you can pay attention to investment opportunities in infrastructure downstream machinery products such as highways and railways, as well as short-term trading opportunities brought by the reform of the Ministry of Railways to railway equipment companies. This month, the rating of the machinery industry, sub-sectors and individual stocks was maintained unchanged.
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